资本市场

By: 韦德奥斯汀

Driven by a rapid lifting of economic restrictions throughout most of the U.S.美国股市5月份连续第四个月上涨&500股报收4,204点,刚刚0点.比历史高点低67%. Once again, the old Wall Street adage ‘Sell in May and Go Away’ was proven wrong. For the record, July is historically the worst performing month, but that does not rhyme.

有488个S&500强企业已公布第一季度收益, 85% beat their consensus estimate – the highest percentage beat in nine years. The more economically sensitive value stocks continued to outperform as large cap growth stocks slipped – 1.当月4%.  11个板块中有7个板块上涨,能源板块涨幅居前.8%.  After lagging for years, value stocks are handily besting growth in 2021 (18.4% vs. 6.3%). 海外股票(由国际发达国家股票领涨3.3%,新兴市场股市上涨2.3%) surged in May aided by increasing vaccination rates and a weakening U.S. 美元.

在3月31日退出后st 4月份创下新高,10年的美国经济增长速度达到了创纪录的水平.S. Treasury yield fluctuated in a tight range before closing May – flat for the month at 1.60%. Despite the abrupt rise in yields during Q1, the 10-year remains unusually low.  平均是2.在过去的10年里增长了08%. While the Federal Reserve meeting notes revealed some members’ initial willingness to begin tapering discussions, 多数投资者预计短期内不会采取行动.  ECB officials in Europe continue to remain dovish as the COVID recovery there lags the U.S. 以及亚洲大部分地区.

Monthly returns were broadly positive across Fixed Income sectors with the only exception being a slight decline among U.年代的抵押贷款支持证券. 在公布了自1980年以来最差的季度收益后,美国股市第一季度的收益是自1980年以来最差的.S. 投资级债券4月份反弹,再涨0点.5月份的77%.  高收益市政债券(+1.15%) were the month’s top fixed income performer as robust demand swamped limited supply.  Municipal bonds’ strong technical and fundamental factors attracted investors considering higher future tax rates.

The persistent increases in inflation data this Spring are becoming difficult to ignore despite the Federal Reserve’s insistence that recent spikes are likely transitory. 随着经济和旅行限制的解除, inflation and supply shortages are real for consumers – whether dining out, 加满油箱, 或者买房子.  然而, 被压抑的消费需求, 增加个人储蓄账户, and shock and awe fiscal stimulus are also boosting economic activity and producing stellar corporate earnings growth. 作为一个结果, investors have found it difficult to reduce equity exposure or shift from this year’s pro-value tilt. 崛起的威胁, disorderly inflation continues to be a key risk for markets among most investors and exhibit A for why the second year of a bull market is more difficult than the first (see our 月相图).

 

约翰·西尔维亚的见解, 经济学主任

Last week’s jobs report for May provided further evidence for the positive outlook for the economy based upon a reading of leading economic indicators such as jobless claims, 工厂订单/发货, 建筑许可和消费者信心. Job gains were present across the major employment categories with a very large gain in the leisure & 酒店业随着许多州的开放越来越多. Gains were broad-based with improvement in education, health care and manufacturing. 此外,失业率降至6%以下.

  • 2021年全年, economic growth is expected to be 6% with strong gains in consumer spending and business investment. Inflation rates have risen over the past year and are expected to present some challenges to investors.
  • 直到最近, 通货膨胀的轨迹, 和通胀预期, were low enough to keep the Fed on hold and short-term interest rates low. 然而, with inflation rising, longer-term interest rates have tended to follow. 2020年12月,10年期利率平均为0.9%, 5月份为1.6%.
  • Rising inflation and benchmark interest rates, along with a steady decline in the U.S. 美元 value, command a review of your investment strategy with respect to holdings of cash and U.S. 投资组合中的国债.
  • Investment opportunities change as the economic recovery evolves often due to changes in inflation, 利率和美元的价值. 除了, a new political administration has introduced new priorities with respect to taxes, 能源发展和基础设施. 所有这些都需要进一步审查您的投资组合.
  • Clients have been rewarded by following the fundamentals and taking a longer view of their position. Recessions are part of the economic cycle, but recovery and expansion are longer lasting. 这一点没有改变.
  • Clients are also rewarded by recognizing that the economy evolves and political priorities change. 澳门赌城app在线的投资重点也将改变.

每月报价

“The arithmetic makes it plain that inflation is a far more devastating tax than anything that has been enacted by our legislatures. 通货膨胀税具有消耗资本的神奇能力.”

沃伦•巴菲特(Warren Buffett)

月相图

The information published herein is provided for informational purposes only, 不构成要约, 劝诱或建议出售或要约购买证券, 投资产品或投资咨询服务. All information, views, opinions and estimates are subject to change or correction without notice. Nothing contained herein constitutes financial, legal, tax, or other advice. The appropriateness of an investment or strategy will depend on an investor’s circumstances and objectives. These opinions may not fit to your financial status, risk and return preferences. 投资建议可能会改变, and readers are urged to check with their investment advisors before making any investment decisions. 所提供的信息基于公共信息, by sources believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Estimates of future performance are based on assumptions that may not be realized. 过去的表现并不一定代表未来的回报. The following indexes were used as proxies in the performance tables: Global Stocks = MSCI ACWI; U.S. 大帽= S&P 500; U.S. Large Value = Russell 1000 Value; U.S. Large Growth = Russell 1000 Growth; U.S. Small Cap = Russell 2000; Int’l Dev Stocks = MSCI EAFE; Emerging Markets = MSCI EM; U.S. Inv级债券=巴克莱美国银行.S. Aggregate; U.S. High Yield Bonds = Barclays Corporate High Yield; Emerging Markets Debt = JPMorgan EMBI Global Diversified; Int’l Bonds = Barclays Global Treasury ex US; Cash = 3month T-Bill; Sector returns displayed in the chart represent S&普尔500指数板块,而国债基准来自巴克莱

来源:投资策略上

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