资本市场

By: 韦德奥斯汀 

美国S economy has not completely recovered from the p和emic yet booming economic activity during Q2 propelled the S&P 500 to an all-time closing high of 4,297 on June 30th- its 34th new closing high of the year. 其15.3% total return YTD marked the 13th best first half of the year since 1950 和 bettered the broader, 摩根士丹利资本国际ACWI全球股票基准指数的总回报率为12.3%.

震慑式财政刺激, ultra-accommodative货币政策, 提高个人储蓄水平, 和 pent-up dem和 after unprecedented lockdowns have energized consumer spending above pre-Covid levels for 这两个 高、低收入者. 而劳动力市场修复得较少(5分).9%的失业率.2M open job postings), corporate earnings are surging because of stellar productivity gains.  FY 2021 earnings growth estimates of 23% in January were revised upward to 40% by June. 2022财年的收益增长预计为12%. For perspective, the average annual earnings growth rate since 1950 is only 6%.

应对相关的通胀担忧, the Fed surprised markets at its mid-June FOMC meeting with a hawkish projection of two interest rate hikes in 2023. The Fed continues to assert that recent 通货膨胀 spikes are transitory but signaled they would be willing to tighten monetary policy sooner than markets were expecting.

After overreacting initially, markets appear aligned with this assessment of 通货膨胀. 10年的美国经济收缩.S. 美国国债收益率收盘报1.44% on June 30th, 13 bps lower for the month 和 30 bps below the prior peak of 1.3月31日74%. 美国.S. 债券综合指数为正0.这个月70%的回报,但上半年仍然是负的(-1.6%),因为10年期国债收益率年初为0.92%

尽管6月份从周期性回到了增长, 价值型股票表现优于增长, 小型股击败大型股, 和美国.S. 上半场击败了国际和新兴市场.  所有11个板块均有所上涨,能源板块涨幅居前(+45).6%),其次是公用事业(+2).5%). Commodities were the big winner as its composite benchmark index gained 21.2%.

虽然年代&6月,P 500指数连续第五个月上涨(+2).3%),下跌股票多于上涨股票. 市场广度已从春季的活跃水平下滑.  The reflation trade that boosted value stocks 和 bond yields has reversed as markets digest potential threats to the global growth outlook, 即Covid变体, 对刺激和赤字的依赖, 通货膨胀, 供应短缺, 收益率曲线趋于平缓.  Tech stocks, which had lagged since September, reached a 3-month high (relative to the S&6月下旬. 美国的方向.S. dollar 和 通货膨胀 will be key indicators in determining if cyclicality resumes leadership during Q3.

市场的总体趋势是强劲的. 美国.S. 是目前最具抵御能力的Covid - 19经济体, 澳门赌城app在线的公司将继续提高生产力. 鉴于这些技术解决方案主要由美国提供.S. 企业,你.S. 相对领先的时间可能比许多人预期的要长.

As we enter the softest part of the calendar for equities (July 和 August, 历史上), 澳门赌城app在线认为警惕自满是明智的, 特别是在长期的低波动时期. 自从11月9日疫苗发布以来,S&P 500上涨了25.5%,而承受的最大跌幅只有-4%. 如澳门赌城app在线的 月相图, an intra-year drawdown of -4% or less has occurred only twice since 1980. 年内平均下降幅度为-14.3%.

市场从来不是一条直线.  然而, sound portfolio diversification 和 realistic expectation setting are the best tools for withst和ing sudden shocks, 保持投资, 和, 因此, 实现长期财务目标.

 

约翰·西尔维亚的见解, 经济学主任

Good news from economic indicators suggests that for the rest of this year, the economic outlook remains positive with growth above the two percent long-run trend. 领先指标,如申请失业救济人数, 工厂订单/发货, 建筑许可, 和 consumer sentiment have provided a reliable gauge of the path of the economy.

  • 2021年全年, economic growth is expected to be six percent plus with strong gains in consumer spending, 住宅投资, 和商业投资. Inflation rates have risen over the past year 和 are expected to present some challenges to investors.
  • 在6月初, 通货膨胀 和 growth expectations picked up with benchmark ten-year yields rising in response. 然而, 最近, the decline in jobless claims 和 the ISM services index has flattened out intimating slower economic growth, 是预期的, but the capital markets lowered their pricing of future 通货膨胀 和 any Fed tightening in policy. As a result, benchmark Treasury 收益率下降 in the last few weeks.
  • 与美联储的政策意图一致, our expectation is that rising 通货膨胀 和 benchmark 利率 along with a steady decline in the U.S. 美元价值促使人们对金融资产前景持谨慎态度. 在最近的过去, 收益率下降, 但从长远来看, 与美联储的意图一致, 是为了更高的通货膨胀和利率.
  • 即使在经济扩张的情况下, there are periods of accelerating 和 decelerating growth/通货膨胀 benchmarks that can distract from the long-run goals of investors. Investment opportunities 和 risks change as the economic recovery evolves often due to changes in 通货膨胀, 利率, 以及美元的价值. 除了, a new political administration has introduced new priorities with respect to taxes, 能源开发, 和基础设施. 所有这些都需要进一步审查您的投资组合.

Clients have been rewarded by following the fundamentals 和 taking a longer view of their position. Recessions are part of the economic cycle, but recovery 和 expansion are longer lasting. 这一点没有改变.

每月报价

“People invest in stocks for two opposite reasons — in hope 和 confidence in the future of an enterprise or in fear that the value of their capital will be lost through 通货膨胀.”

美国金融家巴鲁克

月相图

The information published herein is provided for informational purposes only, 不构成要约, 劝诱或建议出售或要约购买证券, 投资产品或投资咨询服务. All information, views, opinions 和 estimates are subject to change or correction without notice. Nothing contained herein constitutes financial, legal, tax, or other advice. The appropriateness of an investment or strategy will depend on an investor’s circumstances 和 objectives. These opinions may not fit to your financial status, risk 和 return preferences. 投资建议可能会改变, 和 readers are urged to check with their investment advisors before making any investment decisions. 所提供的信息基于公共信息, by sources believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. Estimates of future performance are based on assumptions that may not be realized. 过去的表现并不一定代表未来的回报. The following indexes were used as proxies in the performance tables: Global Stocks = MSCI ACWI; U.S. 大帽= S&P 500; U.S. Large Value = Russell 1000 Value; U.S. Large Growth = Russell 1000 Growth; U.S. Small Cap = Russell 2000; Int’l Dev Stocks = MSCI EAFE; Emerging Markets = MSCI EM; U.S. Inv级债券=巴克莱美国银行.S. Aggregate; U.S. High Yield Bonds = Barclays Corporate High Yield; Emerging Markets Debt = JP摩根 EMBI Global Diversified; Int’l Bonds = Barclays Global Treasury ex US; Cash = 3month T-Bill; Sector returns displayed in the chart represent S&普尔500指数板块,而国债基准来自巴克莱

资料来源:本月图- J.P. 摩根

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