资本市场

By: 韦德奥斯汀

The positive momentum for stocks that began in mid-October continued into Thanksgiving with the S&P 500飙升9.4% QTD,全国新冠肺炎病例下降. 尊敬的卫生官员,包括前FDA专员Dr. 斯科特·戈特利布表示,2019冠状病毒病可能在春季得到控制. 与前一年不同, entire families felt safe to gather around the Thanksgiving Day table to offer thanks, 感觉生活即将回归正常.

突然,隧道尽头的明亮灯光一夜之间变成了黑暗. 南非爆发了快速传播的新冠病毒变种. 对欧米克隆公司的担忧在黑色星期五引发了广泛的市场抛售&股价500点,纳斯达克指数下跌2点.2%和3.分别为5%. 这是两个指数有史以来最糟糕的黑色星期五交易日.

11月30日, 两个交易日后, Fed Chairman Powell indicated during a Senate hearing that the Fed would likely accelerate tapering, opening the door to raising rates much sooner than the market was anticipating. 鲍威尔对通胀的担忧加剧,导致股市再跌2点.0%.

在11月18日以历史新高收盘后,美国股市下跌&P 500 ended the month with a thud as the anxiety ridden Covid rollercoaster ride extended into its 22nd month. 虽然年代&p500指数仅下跌-0.7月份美国经济增长7%.S. small-cap, International, and Emerging Market stocks were hit more harshly, down -4.2%, -4.7%, 4.分别为1%. 国际和新兴市场股市普遍落后于美国股市.S. stocks amid generally more stringent Covid restrictions and more significant economic uncertainty. 在11个美国人中.S. 科技股领涨4点.4%,而金融类股表现最差,下跌了-5.7%.

在债券市场, 10-year Treasury yields fell 11 basis points (bps) during the month as Omicron and economic growth concerns weighed on intermediate and long-term yields. At 1.45%, 10年期收益率比10年平均2个基点低59个基点.04%. 市政(+ 0.85%), U.S. 财政部(+ 0.77%)和U.S. 总键(+ 0.3%) indexes posted solid total returns mainly due to the late-month flight to quality and safety.

期待2022年, the prospects of higher inflation for longer and a potentially rising rate environment are both secular headwinds for P/E multiples. 尽管在2021年的大部分时间里表现不佳, 高市盈率的小型成长型股票最近受到的打击最大. 许多2020年表现最好的股票仅在上周就下跌了20%以上. As of December 3, the average cloud software stock declined 33% from its highs.

Meanwhile, large-cap growth stocks continue to outperform, led by Apple and Microsoft. S的两个最大权重&P 500以前从未超过6%. Our 月相图 shows their remarkable divergence from small-cap growth since the Summer. 对于大型科技股来说,这一创纪录的价差是一个警告信号吗, 或者小型科技股是否会从可以说超卖的状况中反弹?

短期的中断会带来可以理解的不安, 然而,它们对公司的长期前景却知之甚少. 就像欧米克隆公司的股票抛售一样突然, they have rebounded just as sharply this week on early reports the new variant is milder than initially feared. Given the current tension between a reacceleration of economic growth and twin concerns of a more hawkish Fed and the haunting presence of a more persistent pandemic, we caution investors not to be surprised if recent elevated market volatility extends into 2022.

 

约翰·西尔维亚的见解, 经济学主任

The evolution of the economic fundamentals is a critical input for investors. 在过去的两个月里, we have witnessed a reversal from tepid economic growth to a strong current quarter for growth. 通货膨胀, the persistence of price pressures has led to a re-evaluation of the transitory inflation story to a view of sustained inflation going forward. Finally, monetary policy has accelerated the outlook for tapering and raising the funds rate in 2022.

  • Employment gains and solid equipment orders/shipments signify anticipation for an extraordinarily strong fourth quarter of economic growth. 私营部门的就业机会普遍增加, 而失业率再次下降,并接近充分就业.
  • 作为美联储政策目标的核心个人消费支出通胀率为4.1% for October and has been significantly above the Fed’s 2% target for many months. 虽然澳门赌城app在线现在可能会看到通胀数据的峰值, sustained inflation above the Fed’s target compels investors to review their portfolios and revisit the inflation assumption implicit in their portfolios.
  • 考虑到通胀和增长数据, recent Fed governors and regional presidents’ commentary has indicated an acceleration of the reduction in their pace of asset purchases (tapering) with the completion of the rundown by mid-2022. At this time, market expectations have evolved to a position of rate hikes in 2022.
  • 2021年全年, 预计经济增长率为6%, 消费者支出稳步增长, 住宅投资, 和商业投资. Inflation rates have risen over the past year and will present challenges to investors as real returns on cash and sovereign debt continue to be negative. 美联储现在承诺减少其扩张性政策, 金融资产价格的进一步波动已经准备就绪.
  • Benchmark Treasury yields have risen in the last month as inflation concerns climbed and statements from Federal Reserve policymakers emphasized a move toward tapering is likely soon. 持续的通胀仍是美国国债持有者和买家面临的一个问题.
  • 与通货膨胀问题相反, 美元汇率的坚挺反映了美国经济的增长. S. growth relative to the Euro as well as the difficulties faced in emerging markets.
  • 在法规和联邦所得税方面, 长期而言,经济政策仍对投资者不利. Any proposals for greater regulation and higher income/capital gains taxes represent a reduction in the expected rate of return on equity/corporate debt financial assets.
  • Periods of accelerating and decelerating growth/inflation benchmarks can distract from the long-run goals of investors. Investment opportunities and risks change as the economic recovery often evolves due to changes in economic and policy.

每月报价

“我不认为波动是完全无关的风险代表, 尽管, 一个很酷的, 具有长期眼光的冷静投资者, 波动性是美好的.”

彼得·伯恩斯坦-美国经济学家,历史学家,投资经理

月相图

The information published herein is provided for informational purposes only, 不构成要约, 劝诱或建议出售或要约购买证券, 投资产品或投资咨询服务. All information, views, opinions and estimates are subject to change or correction without notice. 本文中所包含的内容不构成财务、法律、税收或其他建议. The appropriateness of an investment or strategy will depend on an investor’s circumstances and objectives. These opinions may not fit to your financial status, risk and return preferences. 投资建议可能会改变, and readers are urged to check with their investment advisors before making any investment decisions. 所提供的信息基于公共信息, 据信可靠的消息来源,但澳门赌城app在线无法证实其准确性. Estimates of future performance are based on assumptions that may not be realized. 过去的表现并不一定代表未来的回报. The following indexes were used as proxies in the performance tables: Global Stocks = MSCI ACWI; U.S. 大帽= S&P 500; U.S. Large Value = Russell 1000 Value; U.S. Large Growth = Russell 1000 Growth; U.S. Small Cap = Russell 2000; Int’l Dev Stocks = MSCI EAFE; Emerging Markets = MSCI EM; U.S. Inv级债券=巴克莱美国银行.S. Aggregate; U.S. High Yield Bonds = Barclays Corporate High Yield; Emerging Markets Debt = JPMorgan EMBI Global Diversified; Int’l Bonds = Barclays Global Treasury ex US; Cash = 3month T-Bill; Sector returns displayed in the chart represent S&普尔500指数板块,而国债基准来自巴克莱

月度图表来源:Strategas

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